Syria has been through a lot over the past decade or so. It was ruled by the hereditary dictator Bashar al-Assad, who ruled brutally and without any tolerance for opposition. The real trouble in his reign started not long after he took control, when pro-democracy protests swept across the Arab world in the spring of 2011. Al-Assad cracked down hard, using lethal force to suppress the protests. His actions sparked more protests, which sparked more retaliation, and the cycle of instability continued. The new, volatile landscape of Syria became the perfect breeding ground for idealistic rebels and foreign terrorists alike. The struggle erupted into a thirteen year civil war, killing hundreds of thousands and displacing millions.
That war seems to have ended now, with Bashar al-Assad forcibly removed from office on the eighth of December. Rebel groups, led by the Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, flooded the capital of Damascus and sent Assad on the run. This unprecedented advancement has sent shockwaves around the world, and has given new hope to millions of Syrians either suppressed under the Assad regime or taking refuge abroad. However, the situation isn’t as clean-cut as it might seem from the outside.
A Questionable Past
Almost no conflict is a pure good versus evil showdown. The Syrian civil war was incredibly complex, with dozens of rebel groups jockeying for control. One major player that inserted itself into the struggle was the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, or ISIS. The goal of ISIS was to reclaim vast areas of land in the Middle East to recreate the Muslim caliphates of old. Unfortunately, the Islamic State’s method of accomplishing this was unforgivable, performing suicide strikes around the world, torture, and looting or destroying of national treasures. The US intervened to stop them, eventually whittling their territory down to nothing by early 2019. However, the power vacuum left by Assad’s disappearance has raised concerns that they might stage a resurgence.
ISIS is looking for a comeback, but there are others who don’t need to look far for power. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is in a position of great power in Syria right now, after spearheading the effort to depose Bashar al-Assad. They were in a prime position to lead this charge, controlling a large section of territory in northwest Syria having proved their power in combat against Assad many times before. Al-Sham was created in 2011 under the name of Jabhat al-Nusra, with close ties to ISIS. The UN condemned al-Nusra as a terrorist organization, and that designation still applies to al-Sham today. However, al-Sham was actually formed when the current leader, Mohammed al-Jolani, wanted to break with ISIS and their ideology. Since then, he’s been working to change al-Sham’s image and present it as a smart choice for the incoming government of Syria. Time will prove if they’ve truly changed.
Outside Influence
What happens in Syria, isn’t staying in Syria. The hungry eyes of many nations are fixed on the turmoil in Syria, and several have already taken direct action. The biggest international supporter of the Assad dictatorship was Russia, and it was largely thanks to Moscow that Bashar al-Assad was able to hold onto his power for so long. Now that he’s been removed from power, Russia has been dealt a serious blow to their regional influence in the Middle East. They’re currently providing refuge to al-Assad, preventing him from being brought up on any charges of crimes against humanity.
Iran is in the same boat as Russia, having poured resources into Syria to maintain a strategic ally there. Many resources have been directed into Syria by way of Hezbollah in Lebanon, one of Iran’s many proxy militant groups. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has made it clear that they are no friends of the Iranians, so this uprising is a huge setback for Tehran.
Israel was never on friendly terms with Syria, but they’re taking advantage of the chaos. Over three hundred airstrikes have been launched by Israel in the wake of the uprising, and Israeli ground troops have moved into Syrian territory in the Golan Heights. These moves have been internationally condemned, but Israel continues to claim that it is merely focused on maintaining its own security by taking out Syrian weapons before they fall into the wrong hands. Israeli presence in the Golan Heights, however, seems to be there to stay.
Testing Our Mettle
The recent events in Syria open the door to a startling breadth of outcomes. There are many factors and interests competing for control, and it’s too early to say who will come out on top. This could well be a major challenge for the United States, as we are on the verge of inaugurating a new administration. Will Biden act decisively now, or will the matter be left to Trump to handle as his first foreign relations crisis in office? And, even with these efforts, is it possible to steer Syria towards democracy and freedom? It’s anyone’s game.
Works Cited
Glenn, Cameron, et al. “Timeline: The Rise, Spread, and Fall of the Islamic State.” Wilson Center, 28 Oct. 2019, www.wilsoncenter.org/article/timeline-the-rise-spread-and-fall-the-islamic-state.
NBC News. Syria updates: Rebel leader vows to pursue Assad officials ‘involved in war crimes’. NBC News, 10 Dec. 2024, www.nbcnews.com/news/world/live-blog/syria-live-updates-rebel-leader-assad-torture-israel-buffer-zone-rcna183554.
Usher, Sebastian. “Who Are Syrian Rebels Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, HTS?” BBC, 30 Nov. 2024, www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce313jn453zo.
“Why Has the Syrian War Lasted 12 Years?” BBC, 15 Mar. 2016, www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35806229.
Solomon, Christopher. “HTS: Evolution of a Jihadi Group.” Wilson Center, 13 July
2022, www.wilsoncenter.org/article/hts-evolution-jihadist-group.
